EX-99.3 5 ex99-3.htm

 

Exhibit 99.3

 

MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS OF OPERATIONS OF The ACQUIRED PROPERTIES

 

Certain aspects of the presentation of the results of operations of the Acquired Properties (as defined below) have been conformed for purposes of presenting comparable results. The following discussion and analysis of the results of operations of the Acquired Properties should be read in conjunction with the audited combined statement of revenue and direct operating expenses of the Acquired Properties for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023 and related notes, filed herewith.

 

General and Basis of Presentation

 

Under the terms of a contemplated Purchase and Sale Agreement between the Sellers (as defined below) and Prairie Operating Co. (“Prairie”) (the “Agreement”), Prairie would acquire certain oil and natural gas properties owned by Bayswater Resources, LLC, Bayswater Fund III-A, LLC, Bayswater Fund III-B, LLC, Bayswater Fund IV-A, LP, Bayswater Fund IV-B, LP, and Bayswater Fund IV-Annex, LP (collectively the “Sellers”) which include properties operated by an affiliated entity of the Sellers (together with the Sellers, “Bayswater”), non-operated properties, related proved reserves, and associated well equipment and infrastructure in Weld County, Colorado (the “Acquired Properties”).

 

Substantially all of the revenue of the Acquired Properties is derived from the sale of oil, natural gas and NGLs. Oil, natural gas and NGL prices are inherently volatile and are influenced by many factors outside of Bayswater’s control.

 

Overview

 

The following table presents production volumes and financial highlights of the Acquired Properties for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023:

 

   Year Ended December 31, 
   2024   2023 
   Period Total   Per Day   Period Total   Per Day 
Production Sales Volume Data:                    
Oil (Mbbls)   5,209    14.3    5,427    14.9 
Natural gas (MMcf)   18,098    49.6    14,031    38.4 
Liquids (Mbbls)   2,165    5.9    1,983    5.4 
Financial Data (thousands):                    
Revenue  $443,852        $466,832      
Revenues in excess of direct operating expenses  $358,624        $381,100      

 

Revenues for the year ended December 31, 2024 decreased by $23.0 million compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to lower oil sales volumes and prices. Revenues in excess of direct operating expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024 decreased by $22.5 million compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to the decrease in revenues.

 

 

 

 

Results of Operations

 

Year ended December 31, 2024 vs. Year ended December 31, 2023

 

   Year ended December 31, 
   2024   2023   $ Change   % Change 
   (Thousands)     
Revenues:                    
Oil sales  $391,062   $415,000   $(23,938)   (6)%
Natural gas and liquids sales   52,790    51,832    958    2%
Total revenues  $443,852   $466,832   $(22,979)   (5)%

 

Oil Sales

 

Oil sales for the year ended December 31, 2024 decreased $23.9 million, or 6%, from the year ended December 31, 2023, related to lower oil sales volumes and lower oil sales prices. The following table reflects oil prices and oil sales volumes for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023.

 

   Year ended December 31, 
   2024   2023 
Oil sales (per barrel)  $75.08   $76.47 
Oil sales volumes (Mbbls)   5,209    5,427 
Per day oil sales volumes (Mbbls/d)   14.3    14.9 

 

Natural Gas and liquids sales

 

Natural gas and liquids sales for the year ended December 31, 2024 increased $1.0 million, or 2%, from the year ended December 31, 2023, due to an increase in natural gas and liquids sales volumes and higher liquids sales prices, partially offset by lower natural gas sales prices. The following table reflects natural gas and liquids prices and natural gas and liquids production volumes for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023.

 

   Year ended December 31, 
   2024   2023 
Natural gas sales (per Mcf)  $0.17   $0.81 
Natural gas sales volumes (MMcf)   18,098    14,031 
Per day natural gas sales volumes (MMcf/d)   49.6    38.4 
           
Liquids sales (per barrel)  $22.95   $20.37 
Liquids sales volumes (Mbbls)   2,165    1,983 
Per day liquids sales volumes (Mbbls/d)   5.9    5.4 

 

Direct operating expenses analysis:

 

  

Year ended

December 31,

          

Per Boe

Expense

 
   2024   2023   $ Change   % Change   2024   2023 
   (Thousands)         
Direct operating expenses:                              
Lease operating expenses  $35,899   $39,898   $(3,999)   (10)%  $3.46   $4.09 
Lease operating expenses, related party   3,315    2,687    628    23%   0.32    0.28 
Production and property taxes   33,140    31,326    1,814    6%   3.19    3.21 
Oil gathering expenses   10,167    8,543    1,625    19%   0.98    0.88 
Workover expenses   2,706    3,278    (572)   (17)%   0.26    0.34 
Total direct operating expenses  $85,228   $85,732   $(503)   (1)%  $8.20   $8.79 
Revenues in excess of direct operating expenses  $358,624   $381,100   $(22,476)   (6)%  $34.52   $39.09 

 

 

 

 

Lease operating expenses decreased $3.4 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily related to a decrease in water hauling and disposal expense.

 

Production and property taxes decreased $1.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily due to a decrease in oil revenue.

 

Oil gathering expenses increased $1.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, primarily related to an increase in the oil sales volumes gathered and transported via pipeline.

 

Workover expenses decreased $0.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to the year ended December 31, 2023, related to a decline in required maintenance on producing wells.

 

Critical Accounting Estimates

 

The preparation of financial statements in conformity with generally accepted accounting principles requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts and disclosure of contingent liabilities at the date of the combined financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Actual results could differ from those estimates.

 

The more significant reporting areas impacted by management’s judgments and estimates are as follows:

 

Revenue Recognition

 

Revenues are derived from the sale of produced oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids and are recognized when the recognition criteria of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (“FASB”) ASC Topic 606, Revenue from Contracts with Customers, are met, which generally occurs at the point in which title passes to the customers. Payment is generally received from one to three months after delivery. Provided that reasonable estimates can be made, revenues are accrued in the month the performance obligation is satisfied. Differences between estimates and actual volumes and prices, if any, are adjusted upon final settlement.

 

Direct Operating Expenses

 

Direct operating expenses are recognized when incurred and include amounts required to operate the wells to produce, gather, transport, process and treat oil and natural gas. Direct operating expenses also include production and property taxes and expenses with support personnel, support services, equipment and facilities related to oil and natural gas production.

 

Oil and Gas Data

 

Oil and Natural Gas Reserves

 

The estimates of proved oil and natural gas reserves and discounted future net cash flows for the Acquired Properties as of December 31, 2024 and 2023, were prepared using historical data and other information by qualified petroleum engineers at Bayswater. The process of estimating quantities of proved oil and natural gas reserves is very complex, requiring significant subjective decisions to be made in the evaluation of available geologic, engineering and economic data for each reservoir. The data for any given reservoir may also change substantially over time as the result of numerous factors, including but not limited to, additional development activity, production history and continual reassessment of the viability of production under varying economic conditions. As a result, revisions to existing reserve estimates may occur from time to time.

 

The estimated proved net recoverable reserves presented below include only those quantities of oil and natural gas that geologic and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future periods from known reservoirs under existing economic, operating, and regulatory practices. In accordance with the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (“SEC”) guidelines, estimates of proved reserves from which present values are derived were based on unweighted 12-month average price of the first day of the month price for the period, and held constant. Proved developed reserves represent only those reserves estimated to be recovered through existing wells. All the Acquired Properties’ reserves set forth herein are in the United States and are proved reserves.

 

 

 

 

   Crude Oil (Bbl)  

Natural Gas Liquids

(Bbl)

   Natural Gas (Mcf)   BOE 
Proved developed and undeveloped reserves                    
As of January 1, 2023   43,534,577    25,716,589    151,438,029    94,490,838 
Oil and gas production   (5,426,809)   (1,983,172)   (14,030,620)   (9,748,417)
Extensions and discoveries                
Revisions of previous estimates   (6,479,476)   (4,566,309)   (23,197,951)   (14,912,110)
December 31, 2023   31,628,293    19,167,109    114,209,457    69,830,311 
                     
Proved developed reserves at beginning of year   22,829,517    16,353,985    94,295,231    54,899,375 
Proved developed reserves at end of year   19,869,387    13,663,701    80,473,539    46,945,345 
Proved undeveloped reserves at beginning of year   20,705,060    9,362,604    57,142,798    39,591,463 
Proved undeveloped reserves at end of year   11,758,906    5,503,407    33,735,918    22,884,966 

 

   Crude Oil (Bbl)  

Natural Gas Liquids

(Bbl)

   Natural Gas (Mcf)   BOE 
Proved developed and undeveloped reserves                    
As of January 1, 2024   31,628,293    19,167,107    114,209,457    69,830,310 
Oil and gas production   (5,208,746)   (2,165,092)   (18,097,870)   (10,390,150)
Extensions and discoveries                
Revisions of previous estimates   (4,854,367)   (1,106,716)   (1,039,772)   (6,134,378)
December 31, 2024   21,565,180    15,895,299    95,071,815    53,305,782 
                     
Proved developed reserves at beginning of year   19,869,387    13,663,700    80,473,539    46,945,344 
Proved developed reserves at end of year   19,174,475    14,610,472    87,749,703    48,409,898 
Proved undeveloped reserves at beginning of year   11,758,906    5,503,407    33,735,918    22,884,966 
Proved undeveloped reserves at end of year   2,390,705    1,284,827    7,322,112    4,895,884 

 

As of December 31, 2023, proved developed and undeveloped reserves of the Acquired Properties were estimated to be 69,830 Mboe. During the year ended December 31, 2023, oil and gas production from the Acquired Properties were 9,748 Mboe and net downward revisions of 14,912 Mboe were recorded, primarily due to technical revisions attributable to decreased well performance. There were no extensions or discoveries during 2023 as all properties were proved reserves as of the beginning of the period. Proved undeveloped reserves were 22,885 Mboe as of December 31, 2023, representing 33% of total proved reserves compared to 39,591 Mboe of proved undeveloped reserves as of December 31, 2022, or approximately 42% of total proved reserves. The decrease was primarily due to the continued development of the Acquired Properties which resulted in 17,840 Mboe of beginning-of-the-year proved undeveloped reserves to be classified to proved developed reserves during 2023. All remaining proved undeveloped reserves are forecasted to be drilled and completed within five years.

 

 

 

 

As of December 31, 2024, proved developed and undeveloped reserves of the Acquired Properties were estimated to be 53,306 Mboe. During the year ended December 31, 2024, oil and gas production from the Acquired Properties were 10,390 Mboe and net downward revisions of 6,134 Mboe were recorded, primarily due to technical revisions attributable to decreased well performance. There were no extensions or discoveries during 2024 as all properties were proved reserves as of the beginning of the period. Proved undeveloped reserves were 4,896 Mboe as of December 31, 2024, representing 9% of total proved reserves compared to 22,885 Mboe of proved undeveloped reserves as of December 31, 2023, or approximately 33% of total proved reserves. The decrease was primarily due to the continued development of the Acquired Properties which resulted in 16,121 Mboe of beginning-of-the-year proved undeveloped reserves to be classified to proved developed reserves during 2024. All remaining proved undeveloped reserves are forecasted to be drilled and completed within five years.

 

Revisions represent the net changes in previous reserves estimates, either upward or downward, resulting from new information normally obtained from development, drilling, and production history or resulting from a change in economic factors, such as commodity prices, operating costs or development costs.

 

Oil, natural gas and NGL reserve engineering is an estimation of accumulations of oil, natural gas and NGLs that cannot be measured exactly. The accuracy of any reserves estimate is a function of the quality of available data and engineering and geological interpretation and judgment. Accordingly, reserves estimates may vary from the quantities of oil, natural gas and NGLs that are ultimately recovered.

 

Standardized Measure

 

The Acquired Properties compute a standardized measure of future net cash flows and changes therein relating to estimated proved reserves in accordance with authoritative accounting guidance. The assumptions used to compute the standardized measure are those prescribed by the FASB and the SEC. These assumptions do not necessarily reflect Bayswater’s expectations of actual revenues to be derived from those reserves, nor their present value amount. The limitations inherent in the reserve quantity estimation process, as discussed previously, are equally applicable to the standardized measure computations since these reserve quantity estimates are the basis for the valuation process.

 

Future cash inflows and production and development costs are determined by applying prices and costs, including transportation, quality, and basis differentials, to the yearend estimated future reserve quantities. The following weighted average prices as adjusted for transportation, quality, and basis differentials were used in the calculation of the standardized measure:

 

   2024   2023 
Crude Oil per Bbl  $72.41   $75.40 
Natural Gas Liquids per Bbl  $22.97   $20.34 
Natural Gas per Mcf  $0.09   $0.78 

 

Future operating costs are determined based on estimates of expenditures to be incurred in developing and producing the proved reserves in place at the end of the period using yearend costs and assuming continuation of existing economic conditions. The standardized measure presented here does not include the effects of federal income taxes as the Sellers are partnerships and not subject to federal income taxes.

 

 

 

 

The standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows relating to the Acquired Properties’ proved oil and natural gas reserves is as follows (in thousands):

 

   December 31, 2024   December 31, 2023 
Future cash inflows  $1,934,965   $2,864,222 
Future production costs   (703,289)   (795,220)
Future development costs   (44,245)   (93,467)
Future net cash flows   1,187,431    1,975,535 
Less: 10% annual discount to reflect timing of cash flows   (416,026)   (695,350)
Standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows  $771,405   $1,280,185 

 

Changes in Standardized Measure

 

Changes in the standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows before income taxes related to the proved oil and gas reserves of the Acquired Properties are as follows (in thousands):

 

   For the Years Ended 
   December 31, 2024   December 31, 2023 
Standardized measure – beginning of the year  $1,280,185   $2,354,947 
Sales of oil and natural gas, net of production costs   (358,624)   (381,100)
Net changes in price and production costs   (63,186)   (831,988)
Revisions of previous quantity estimates   (221,598)   (320,932)
Acquisition of reserves   -    - 
Development costs incurred   47,354    266,702 
Extensions and discoveries   -    - 
Accretion of discount   128,018    235,495 
Net change in future development costs   3,182    (19,569)
Changes in timing and other   (43,926)   (23,370)
Standardized measure – end of year  $771,405   $1,280,185 

 

Internal Controls and Qualifications of Technical Persons

 

The technical persons responsible for preparing the reserves estimates presented herein meet the requirements regarding qualifications, independence, objectivity and confidentiality set forth in the Reserve Standards.

 

Bayswater maintains an internal staff of petroleum engineers and geoscience professionals who work closely with its reserve engineers to ensure the integrity, accuracy and timeliness of the data used to calculate its proved reserves relating to its assets. Bayswater’s internal engineers meet with independent reserve engineers periodically during the periods covered by the reserve report to discuss the assumptions and methods used in the proved reserve estimation process.

 

The preparation of Bayswater’s proved reserve estimates is completed in accordance with Bayswater’s internal control procedures. These procedures, which are intended to ensure reliability of reserve estimations, include the following:

 

  review and verification of historical production data, working interest, net revenue interest, lease operating statements, capital costs, severance and ad valorem taxes, which data is based on actual production as reported by Bayswater;
     
  verification of property ownership by Bayswater’s land department;
     
  preparation of reserve estimates by Bayswater’s Senior Vice President of Engineering;
     
  review by Bayswater’s Senior Vice President of Engineering of all of Bayswater’s reported proved reserves, including the review of all significant reserve changes and all new proved undeveloped reserves additions; and
     
  direct reporting responsibilities and final approval by Bayswater’s Senior Vice President of Engineering to Bayswater’s Valuation and Investment Committees.

 

 

 

 

John Arsenault, Senior Vice President of Engineering, is the technical person primarily responsible for overseeing the preparation of Bayswater’s reserves estimates. He has more than 30 years of experience in petroleum reservoir engineering, including reserve and economic evaluations, acquisition and divestitures, reservoir simulation and management. He has worked as an engineer with various consulting firms in his career, including several years with Schlumberger’s Reservoir Technologies Division, and MHA Petroleum Consultants. He has worked internationally in Mexico, Germany and Indonesia. Mr. Arsenault has significant experience with reserves evaluation and acquisition and development activities in the DJ Basin. While with Schlumberger, he managed offices in both Mexico and in the United States, leading large teams of integrated reservoir studies groups. He has extensive experience in hydraulic fracturing, having worked with the Gas Technology Institute on the implementation of various research projects. Mr. Arsenault has a BSc in Petroleum Engineering from the Colorado School of Mines.

 

Drilling Activity

 

The following table sets forth the exploratory and development wells completed (operated and non-operated) during the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023:

 

   Year Ended December 31 
   2024   2023 
   Gross   Net   Gross   Net 
Exploratory                    
Productive Wells                
Dry Wells                
Total Exploratory Wells                
Development                    
Productive Wells   30    28.3    60    53.4 
Dry Wells                
Total Development Wells   30    28.3    60    53.4 
Total   30    28.3    60    53.4 

 

At December 31, 2024, 8.8 net (10 gross) wells were in the process of being drilled, completed, awaiting completion, or any other related material activities.

 

Production and Cost History

 

The following tables set forth information regarding net production of oil, natural gas and liquids and certain price and cost information for each of the periods indicated. The information set forth below related to the Acquired Properties consists of the historical results for the years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023:

 

   Year Ended December 31, 
   2024   2023 
Oil:          
Total production (Mbbls)   5,209    5,427 
Average sales price ($ per Bbl)  $75.08   $76.47 
Natural Gas:          
Total production (MMcf)   18,098    14,031 
Average sales price ($ per Mcf)  $0.17   $0.81 
Natural Gas Liquids:          
Total production (Mbbls)   2,165    1,983 
Average sales price ($ per Bbl)  $22.95   $20.37 
Oil Equivalents:          
Total production (MBoe)   10,390    9,748 
Average daily production (MBoe/d)   28.47    26.7 
Average direct operating expenses ($ per Boe)  $8.11   $8.79 

 

Wells

 

The following table sets forth the number wells in which the Sellers owned a working interest as of December 31, 2024:

 

   Total 
   Gross   Net 
DJ Basin – Operated   327    299.9 
DJ Basin – Non-operated   150    6.3 

 

 

 

 

Developed and Undeveloped Acreage

 

The following table sets forth the Acquired Properties leasehold acreage as of December 31, 2024.

 

   Developed Acres   Undeveloped Acres   Total Acres 
   Gross   Net   Gross   Net   Gross   Net 
DJ Basin   25,856    21,906    2,619    2,374    28,475    24,280 

 

All of the leases comprising the undeveloped acreage set forth in the table above will expire at the end of their primary terms unless an extension provision within the lease is exercised, the lease is extended by continuous operations, or production is established, in which event the lease will remain in effect until the cessation of production. The following table sets forth, as of December 31, 2024, the above undeveloped acreage subject to two-year extension provisions.

 

   2025   2026   2027 
   Gross   Net   Gross   Net   Gross   Net 
Extension Acres   545    545    -    -    -    - 

 

All of the leases comprising the undeveloped acreage set forth in the tables above will expire at the end of their respective primary terms unless otherwise extended as described above. The following table sets forth, as of December 31, 2024, the expiration periods of the undeveloped acres, excluding the Extension Acres described above.

 

   2025   2026   2027 
   Gross   Net   Gross   Net   Gross   Net 
Expiration   640    640    160    160           

 

Operations

 

The development plan for the Acquired Properties, as of December 31, 2024, assumed that all of the undeveloped acreage set forth in the tables above would be extended by continuous development and thereafter establishment of production, thereby negating the need to exercise the available extension provisions and nullifying the expiration periods.

 

General

 

Bayswater is the operator of substantially all of the Acquired Properties’ acreage. As operator, Bayswater obtains regulatory authorizations, designs and manages the development of a well and supervises operation and maintenance activities on a day-to-day basis. Bayswater does not own drilling rigs or the majority of the other oil field service equipment used for drilling or maintaining wells on the properties it operates. Independent contractors engaged by Bayswater provide a majority of the equipment and personnel associated with these activities. Bayswater utilizes the services of drilling, production and reservoir engineers and geologists and other specialists who work to improve production rates, increase reserves and lower the cost of operating Bayswater’s oil and natural gas properties.

 

Marketing

 

Bayswater markets all of the oil, natural gas and NGLs production from its operated properties. For the year ended December 31, 2024, the three largest customers with respect to the Acquired Properties generated approximately 87% of sales. For the year ended December 31, 2023, the three largest customers with respect to the Acquired Properties generated approximately 73% of sales. The loss of any single purchaser could materially and adversely affect the revenues of the Acquired Properties in the short-term; however, Bayswater believes that the loss of any of its purchasers would not have a long-term material adverse effect on its results of operations as oil, natural gas and NGLs are fungible products with well-established markets and numerous purchasers.

 

The majority of the Acquired Properties’ production is party to crude oil purchase contracts, pursuant to which the counterparty is required to receive and purchase all crude oil produced from the wells. One of the crude oil purchase contracts to which the Acquired Properties are subject requires a minimum volume of oil to be delivered each year beginning in 2023 and continuing through 2026. If volumes are under-delivered during this period, the Acquired Properties incur a fee per barrel of under-delivered volumes. The oil produced from the Acquired Properties is primarily gathered and purchased via pipeline.

 

Additionally, the Acquired Properties are subject to various gas gathering and processing agreements pursuant to which it has dedicated acreage, which the counterparty is required to receive and purchase all natural gas produced from wells operated by Bayswater located within the dedicated area through the term of the contracts. In exchange for this land dedication, the Acquired Properties receive certain gathering and delivery rights. One of the gas gathering and processing agreements to which the Acquired Properties are subject requires a monthly minimum payment, beginning in October 2019 and continuing through September 2029, intended to reimburse costs incurred by the counterparty in order to connect the gathering facility to the covered lands. This gas gathering and processing agreement further allocates a portion of the counterparty’s firm commitments to transport natural gas liquids processed by the counterparty to the Acquired Properties beginning in July 2022 and continuing through September 2029. Beginning in January 2023, this commitment is subject to shortfall fees for any under-delivered volumes.